A number of people who dislike President Obama seem to be of the impression that the Democratic Party is imploding, and that public outrage will cause virtually every competitive seat to go Republican in November. When such groups gather (in person or on a website’s comment area), the ideas are echoed and take on the appearance of certainty.
Large swings have happened before, but in cases like the "Republican Revolution" of 1994 there was a leader and a positive agenda. Historically the balance of power shifts more gradually because voters, for some reason, give incumbents a LOT of slack when it comes to poor performance. Mayor Ray Nagin, having botched New Orleans’ evacuation for Hurricane Katrina (which was entirely a city function) and having made repeated stupid comments about chocolate cities and knowing the mind of God, was re-elected.
That said, even an incremental change in the US Senate can cause huge shifts in the legislation passed by that body. A net increase of two or three seats would give the Republicans significant leverage in toning down the majority’s agenda. A net increase of four seats could halt that agenda in its tracks. The current wave of Democratic resignations seems designed to get the most vulnerable incumbents off of the ballot. Conservative impatience with Republicans may also lead to strong third-party candidates that will only split the anti-Democrat vote.
A majority of Americans may be dissatisfied with President Obama’s leadership, but simply assuming that this will translate into a sea change in Congress is foolish. People who want to see an end to the President’s brand of "bipartisanship" and "transparency" need to take action to make competitive seats go Republican in November.
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